Handicapping Maiden Races For Horses Dropping Or Going Up in Class

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There’s a saying that some individuals use when handicapping maiden horse races. “The class ladder only goes one way in maiden races.” What they imply is that when a horse drops at school, notably from the maiden particular weight (MSW) ranks to the claimers, it may well’t transfer again up into the MSW races and win. That simply is not true. I’ve seen many horses drop from the maiden particular weight ranks right into a maiden claimer after which transfer again as much as an MSW and win. I do not know what the statistics are, however anecdotally, it appears to be occurring an increasing number of currently.

The logic behind the assertion that the category ladder solely goes a method is predicated on an thought about maiden horses that many handicappers appear to share. The notion is that maidens are fairly clear and what you see, so far as type and talent, is what you get. That is true many occasions and that’s the reason a excessive share of favorites win maiden races.

However earlier than we run to the home windows to guess all favorites in maiden races to win, right here is one other thought, maidens, being younger and growing, are additionally topic to vary and alter shortly. This second thought appears to contradict our earlier one concerning the transparency of maidens. It does, however then once more, maidens might be fairly complicated to handicap. Choosing winners in races for maidens is simply as tough as in some other class of races.

As a result of they’re younger and nonetheless growing, their trainers are experimenting with gear adjustments, coaching adjustments, jockey adjustments… get the thought? Any a type of adjustments can have a dramatic influence on the horse’s efficiency. Due to this fact, if a coach makes an adjustment and the horse appears to enhance dramatically, she or he is prone to take the horse out of the decrease grade race and transfer it again into the next grade, even going from claimers to particular weights. The success of that transfer will depend on many issues together with, the energy of the competitors, the flexibility of the coach and jockey, and good outdated racing luck.

When I’m handicapping races and see a horse transferring again into the MSW races after sojourn within the claimers, I’m at all times suspicious and look intently on the horse and its exercises. If the coach is competent and a superb jockey is on the horse, I’ve to determine that there needs to be an enchancment within the runner’s efficiency. Whenever you encounter these class movers, watch out. Whereas the drop from MSW to claimers often is the greatest class drop in racing, the category ladder nonetheless goes each methods.

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